Stability and numerical simulation of an SCIRS epidemic model for Covid-19 transmission by Caputo derivative of fractional order

Fatemeh Janatolmakan, Vahid Roomi, Tohid Kasbi Gharahasanlou

Abstract


In this paper, applying Caputo fractional derivative operator, the SCIRS epidemic model of Covid-19 has been presented. First, the well-definedness of the model (positive invariance) has been checked. We then calculate the equilibrium points of the system and the reproduction number and discuss the local and global stability of the equilibria based on values of the reproduction number. For the global stability of the rest points, the Liapunov’s second method and LaSalle’s invarianceprinciple are used. Applying fixed point theory, the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the model has been proven. Additionally, by using MATLAB and fractional Euler method, a numerical method has been applied to simulate the solutions based on real data and predict the transmission of Covid-19.

Keywords


Basic reproduction number, Covid-19, Epidemiological modeling, Equilibrium point, Numerical simulation, SCIRS model

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.